DNVs UK Energy Transition Outlook
The first edition of DNVs UK Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) 2022 highlights that the nation will miss its net zero ambitions and achieve an 85% reduction from 1990 levels by 2050, with significant emissions from the buildings and transport sector still impeding overall success.
In this report, DNV provides a detailed forecast of the demand and supply of energy towards 2050 and delves into the specific opportunities, challenges, policy, and financing impacting the likelihood of goals being met.
Unlike other reports out there, DNVs UK ETO is not based on scenarios and instead is a best forecast based on the current approach.
Here are some selected highlights of the forecast:
* The UK will not meet its legally binding a Net Zero by 2050 target and will also fall short of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitment for 2030 under the Paris Agreement.
* The UK's primary energy supply will shift away from fossil fuels to low carbon sources from only 20% low carbon sources today to 70% by 2050.
* By 2050 electricity demand in the UK will increase by a factor of 2.5 compared to today requiring 250 GW of new generation capacity.
* The decarbonisation of the UK economy is affordable and will, by 2050, halve overall household energy expenditure.
* The UK can meet its 2050 net zero target, but this will require clear early policy decisions particularly around the decarbonisation of heating in buildings and transport.
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