03-04-2025

US LNG full lifecycle emissions delivered to Europe are 48% of the coal equivalent

Wood Mackenzie has used its proprietary data as well as credible third-party sources to prepare a rigorous comparison of lifecycle emissions of US LNG and coal in power generation.

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis reveals the lifecycle emissions of US LNG are typically around 48% of the coal equivalent. This difference is not just related to the significantly higher emissions related to the combustion of coal versus gas but also on the extremely high methane losses associated with underground mined bituminous coals from Appalachia, which is a key source for imported thermal coals in NW Europe.

“In recent years, several highly publicised articles and scientific papers have analysed the lifecycle emissions of LNG and coal,” said Research Director of Global LNG, Daniel Toleman. “These studies have suggested that LNG emissions may actually be higher than coal. This is due to methane losses along the value chain. Such findings undermine the premise of LNG as a key fuel in the energy transition. LNG from the United States has been specifically singled out in these discussions. This focus stems from considerable speculation about methane emissions related to unconventional gas production. This type of production feeds most US LNG export projects.”

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis reveals the lifecycle emissions of US LNG are typically around 48% of the coal equivalent. This difference is not just related to the significantly higher emissions related to the combustion of coal versus gas but also on the extremely high methane losses associated with underground mined bituminous coals from Appalachia, which is a key source for imported thermal coals in NW Europe. The report reveals the average lifecycle emissions for US LNG in China is around 63% of the level for coal. The range of coal emissions is considerably less than that seen in the US. This is driven by much lower methane losses associated with surface mined coals from Indonesia. That said, even the lowest emitting Indonesian coal is still 23% greater than the highest emitting US LNG due to coal’s significant combustion emissions.

Toleman added, “It is also clear that there are a number of ‘truths’ about LNG and coal that have perhaps not always been fully appreciated and/or represented in some of the prior published analyses. These truths are extremely important if a fair and reasonable assessment is to be made comparing US LNG and coal emissions.”

According to Toleman, these truths include:

• Gas for US LNG projects is not primarily sourced from the high methane intensity Permian basin – currently gas from the Permian makes up only 10% of supply with more than two thirds coming from the lower emissions basins of the Haynesville and Northeast.
• A significant proportion of gas from the Haynesville and Northeast is known to be certified as having methane intensities of less than 0.2% and thus our estimates for US LNG in this analysis are probably higher than the current reality.
• US liquefaction projects typically have more modern and efficient turbine technologies and thus on average have over 20% lower emissions intensities than the global average.
• Higher emitting steam turbine LNG vessels carry only a very small percentage of US LNG – most LNG is shipped from the US on modern, higher efficiency vessels with significantly lower emissions.
• Coal from underground mines has methane emissions intensities that are significantly higher than any US LNG project.

He continues, “Having spent many years examining the value chain emissions of fossil fuels, we believe that it is important for the LNG industry, governments, regulators and NGOs to gather around some form of “common truth” based on facts and empirical information about LNG related emissions. This creates an accepted baseline from which the industry can continue to progress the challenging process of decarbonization of the overall LNG value chain. Efforts to discredit this common truth, while well intentioned, perhaps distract from the real questions for the industry and indeed may actually hinder progress.”